Forex Weekly Forecast with Technical Analysis on April 06'25

What a week it’s been.

‍

With the U.S. and China officially locking horns in a full-blown trade war, market conditions are unraveling fast. Gold just pulled off the wildest swing in its history, crude oil is collapsing, and the U.S. dollar is standing at a crucial cliff edge.

‍

This week, Fed Minutes and the U.S. CPI release could be the final straw that decides whether this is the beginning of a deeper collapse—or the calm before a rebound.

‍

Let’s break it all down and map the market terrain ahead.

‍

Dollar Index (DXY)

‍

The Dollar Index continues to reject from a high-confluence resistance zone on the monthly chart—between the 78.6% and 85.4% Fib retracement levels. Sellers have regained control and are now pushing into the next bearish leg. If price breaks the key 618 extension level at 101.05, the next magnet zone sits near 96.55, which aligns with historical fib overlaps and price structure.

On the daily, there's no sign of bullish divergence—only lower lows and aligned momentum, confirming a bearish outlook. Even short-term pullbacks seen on the H4 and H1 charts lack reversal strength. MACD lines and histogram reinforce that rallies are to be sold, not celebrated.

‍

Click here to see the exact level on DXY where a small bounce turns into a full breakdown (plus the pair to watch as the dollar crumbles.)

‍

EUR/GBP

‍

EUR/GBP is flashing clear bullish signals across the board. Monthly retracement held above the 38.2% zone, and on the weekly, both MACD histogram and lines confirm a strong bullish divergence. The structure has broken out of its previous BOS (break of structure), shifting control to the buyers.

Daily extensions point toward 0.8591 as the next magnet zone, and the H4 confirms sustained bullish momentum with clean higher lows and no divergence warning in sight. Even deeper, the 4H chart shows a completed ABC projection with potential pullbacks that may offer fresh long setups.

‍

Click here to find out why Euro is set to outperform Pound this week (and how to time your entry before the next 100-pip rally.)

‍

USD/CHF

‍

USDCHF is following through on its multi-frame bearish narrative. From the monthly to the daily, price has respected major fib zones and repeatedly failed to hold key supports. The next downside magnets are locked in at 0.8410, and a deeper drop to 0.8220 is on the cards if sellers stay in control.

MACD across the board is weakening fast. While there may be a minor pullback brewing on the H4, it’s not a reversal—just a brief pause before continuation. Any rise toward the 61.8% or even 78% retracement zones should be viewed as a sell opportunity.

‍

Click here to access the USDCHF sell zone we’re watching (plus the Fibonacci layer most traders ignore that could pinpoint the drop.)

‍

Crude Oil (WTI)

‍

Crude Oil’s technicals are flashing red across every timeframe. After failing to break above its major 78.6% monthly retracement level, the rejection was fierce—and sellers have stepped back in with full momentum. Weekly projections now show $57.5 as the first landing zone, but the more aggressive targets point to $48… and even $37, if panic accelerates.

Daily and H4 structure remain solidly bearish. No divergence. No hesitation. Any bounce toward the $67–$71 area is a chance to reload shorts. As long as price stays below the falling daily trendline and fails to close above $74.93, the path of least resistance remains lower.

‍

Click here to see the oil collapse roadmap (including the 3 domino zones that could trigger a move into the $40s.)

‍

Gold (XAUUSD)

‍

Gold may have seen its craziest swing ever last week, but beneath the chaos lies structure. Monthly and weekly trendlines remain intact, and while the 4H and daily show some short-term bearish divergence, the deeper trend is still bullish—especially as global crisis intensifies.

On the daily, key support sits between $2900–$2880, with fib clusters and trendlines acting as critical bounce zones. A flush lower may still come, but structurally, gold remains a safe-haven play in times of uncertainty. Just like 2008 and 2020, early chaos shakes out weak hands—but the big money flows into gold soon after.

‍

Click here to get our full gold playbook (see where the real institutions are buying, and the one number that flips gold from shaky to soaring.)

‍

Key Events to Watch This Week:

‍

Fed Minutes (Wednesday) — could signal the next rate shift

US CPI (Thursday) — a volatility trigger for USD and Gold

These events could either support the current moves—or flip the script.

When the markets go into chaos, two types of traders emerge. Those who react... and those who prepare.

You already know which one you want to be.

‍

Click Here to Watch the Full Week Forex Forecast