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It’s time for the new weekly forecast for the trading week beginning 14th April.
This week, two major central banks step into the spotlight.The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada (BoC). With the ECB widely expected to cut rates, traders are left with critical questions:
Can Nikkhil continue shorting the US Dollar?
Can he confidently hold his longs in the Euro?
Is the golden rally over or are we preparing for another breakout?
And with energy volatility returning, can Crude Oil mount a comeback?
In this report, we walk you through each of these questions and reveals which trade holds the highest probability for the week ahead.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)
Nikkhil begins with a macro view of the Dollar Index, analysing the three-month timeframe. The current move up is clearly corrective, moving against the prior bearish leg. Applying Fibonacci retracement from high to low, price has bounced directly into the 78.6% to 85.4% zone, a classic reversal area. This zone is now marked as key.
A higher-high formation has appeared, but with bearish divergence visible on both the PNP and MACD indicators. The histogram has also shifted bearish, confirming downside bias on the higher timeframe.
On the monthly, Nikkhil applies the first Fib extension, revealing a magnet zone between 95.92 and 96.62.
Dropping to the weekly, there’s no structural change or divergence shift, which leads to the daily timeframe, where the extension aligns at 96.68, confirming a multi-timeframe target.
Momentum remains clearly bearish on both the daily and 4H charts. Any rally into 101.14–101.65 is expected to be met with selling. Higher levels like 103.92 and 105.32 may act as distant resistances, but current structure does not support a move that far.
On the 1H chart, a typical wave structure is unfolding. Nikkhil identifies the market in a corrective fourth wave, potentially completing around 101.14, with hidden bearish divergence also in play. Unless price breaks above the 1H bearish trendline, this market is firmly a sell-on-rise.
CRUDE OIL
Crude Oil is next on the radar. Nikkhil analyses the three-month chart, applying Fib retracement from the major low to high. After a strong rally, price corrected deeply, breaching but not closing below the 85.4% retracement. That zone is now acting as a long-term structural base.
The current rally has entered a pullback phase. Using both retracement and ABC extension in the bearish direction, strong downside targets emerge at 38.51 and 32.16.
On the monthly, no completed ABC pattern is present, but the weekly chart offers clear structure. Nikkhil identifies bearish extensions projecting down to 57–55, then 52.83, followed by 47.45, and ultimately 37.31. This confirms building downside pressure.
The daily chart shows bullish divergence causing a minor bounce, but structure remains bearish with lower lows. Unless the daily bearish trendline is broken, the overall outlook remains negative.
On the 4H, Nikkhil spots a short-term bullish extension. This gives potential targets between 63.86 and 67.28, but this move is corrective, not a reversal. The higher timeframes still suggest more downside.
EURNZD
Due to this week’s ECB decision, Nikkhil opts to analyse EURNZD instead of EUR/USD.
Starting on the three-month chart, the move is clearly corrective upward against a prior bearish structure. Fib retracement highlights a key resistance zone between 61.8% and 85.4%, and a clean ABC bullish pattern gives a magnet at 2.02.
On the monthly, another extension aligns closely with this zone, strengthening the 2.01–2.02 resistance band.
The weekly chart shows bullish momentum: higher highs across price, MACD lines, and histogram. A long-term rising trendline has been plotted. Until price breaks below this line, the trend remains bullish.
The daily confirms the structure, with no divergence yet. However, on the 4H, bearish divergence is now present, along with a trendline break. This signals a short-term correction is underway, with downside targets at 1.9243 and 1.8980.
According to Nikkhil, this is a pullback opportunity, not a reversal. Once the correction ends, the longer-term bullish plan resumes.
USDCAD
Looking at USDCAD, the three-month chart shows a strong rejection from the 78.6% Fib level at 1.4601, with confirmed bearish divergence now visible across timeframes.
On the monthly, divergence is building. The weekly confirms structural breakdown. The daily chart shows full bearish structure with a complete ABC extension pointing toward 1.3765 and 1.3543.
Nikkhil notes that while a bounce toward 1.4126 is possible, the downtrend is expected to continue, with the falling trendline acting as key resistance.
Even on the 1H chart, sellers are showing exhaustion, but no bullish structure has been confirmed. Until that changes, this remains a short-the-bounce setup.
GOLD (XAUUSD)
Gold is where Nikkhil sees strength.
On the three-month timeframe, price is in a clear bullish extension with a long-term target around 3535. On the monthly, additional Fib levels show confluence zones between 3473 and 3535, with support forming around 3118.
The weekly confirms strong bullish momentum. Friday’s close at 3235 lands directly on a Fib level, but without divergence. The trend remains firmly intact.
On the daily, a rising trendline remains unbroken. Fib extensions place the next resistance magnet between 3319 and 3342, followed by 3405 and the ultimate 3475+ zone. As long as the price holds above 3118, the plan is simple: buy the dips.
Only a clean break below the daily trendline would prompt a reassessment.
Click here to unlock the 3-level roadmap we’re using to ride this Gold rally, and the key level that flips the whole game.
So, which trade has the best odds this week?
Based on structure and momentum, Gold and EURNZD (after the pullback) show the clearest edge. DXY and USDCAD offer clean downside plays. Crude Oil remains high reward, but it will demand precise timing.
Click Here to Watch the Full Week Forex Forecast
We’ll talk soon!
Team Moneytize
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