Forex Weekly Forecast with Technical Analysis on April 20'25

It’s time for the new weekly forecast, covering the trading week beginning 21st April.

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Global markets are entering a new phase of movement following central bank decisions and a week of lighter international volumes. While the UAE remained active, many Western markets saw closures last Friday and partial openings on Monday, which led to reduced volatility globally. Full momentum is expected to return from Tuesday.

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The Bank of Canada has paused its rate-cutting cycle, citing trade uncertainty and a cooling housing market. Depending on upcoming US tariffs, their projections range from subdued growth to potential recession by 2026. This has opened a key opportunity in CADJPY, which Nikkhil covers in detail below.

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Let’s walk through the technical map for this week’s highest-probability setups.

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DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)

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Nikkhil starts by analysing the Dollar Index from the three-month chart. The previous bullish cycle has now completed its retracement, and using ABC structure, a bearish Fib extension reveals strong downside magnets between 95.93 and 96.72.

On the monthly, another bearish extension confirms resistance just above current levels, with momentum continuing lower. A long-term rising trendline remains intact but is under pressure.

The daily chart gives a clearer view and the current leg is targeting 97.25, with 99.92 now acting as resistance. There's a potential bullish divergence forming, but it remains unconfirmed.

Even on 4H, the sequence of lower highs and lower lows continues, with no sign of reversal. Finally, on the 1H, Nikkhil notes slowing momentum and the emergence of bullish divergence, suggesting a minor pullback toward 101.17 may occur before the downtrend resumes.

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Click here to see why this DXY pullback could be the perfect fakeout (and how it might trap early bulls before the next leg down.)

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CADJPY

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The setup building in CADJPY is one of the cleanest this week.

Starting on the three-month chart, Nikkhil notes that the recent move up was corrective, failing to break previous highs. Two separate Fib extensions converge near a strong magnet zone, indicating the current rally was unsustainable.

The monthly confirms this view, with bearish divergence now visible. The rally above the magnet zone appears to be a fake break, and sellers are gaining momentum.

On the weekly, a bearish ABC structure targets 96.36, offering over 600 pips of downside potential. The daily supports this with a continued sequence of lower highs and lower lows.

Although there's histogram-based divergence on lower timeframes, the MACD lines remain bearish. Short-term, a corrective move toward 105.63–106.79 is possible before the next leg lower resumes.

On the 4H and 1H, a short-term bullish structure is in play. Price has bounced from the 78.6%–85.4% retracement zone, with targets at 103.89 to 105.00. Nikkhil advises traders to sell into strength, especially around 105, aligning technical structure with the current macro narrative.

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Click here to watch how Nikkhil's mapping this 600+ pip opportunity (and the exact zone where CADJPY could flip.)

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CRUDE OIL (WTI)

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Crude Oil is retracing after a failed attempt to break long-term resistance.

On the three-month timeframe, Nikkhil identifies a key reversal zone between 114 and 122 using fib retracement. The recent bounce is now fading, with multiple fib extensions pointing to downside targets as low as 32.55.

The monthly chart shows a completed bullish structure, but with no higher high, it's treated as a correction. Targets cluster between 39.13 and 32.55, and the weekly reveals that Oil has already touched the first magnet zone before bouncing.

Bearish momentum continues on the daily, with extensions targeting 57.82, 49.12, and even 43.75. A break below the falling trendline would accelerate these targets.

Short-term on 1H and 4H, bullish divergence has formed, leading to a corrective bounce. Nikkhil sees 66.88–67.00 as the next resistance zone, ideal for watching bearish setups reappear.

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Click here to uncover the two levels that could determine whether Oil collapses to 40 (or bounces back into no man’s land.)

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GBPUSD

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With Dollar weakness in play, Nikkhil turns to GBPUSD, where the structure suggests further upside.

The three-month chart shows a major bullish divergence and a completed breakout. Fib retracement levels align around 1.4000, with a magnet zone between 1.4680 and 1.4700.

On the monthly, extensions project targets into this zone, and the weekly shows a clean upward trend with no signs of exhaustion.

The daily aligns with targets between 1.3661 and 1.3762. On 4H and 1H, structure remains bullish with consistent higher lows and higher highs.

A potential dip to 1.2942–1.3000 would be considered a buying opportunity, as higher timeframes are fully supportive of the trend.

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Click here to see where Nikkhil’s planning his next re-entry on GBPUSD (and why a small pullback could lead to a big breakout.)

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USDCAD

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Next up is USDCAD, which is showing early signs of topping out.

On the monthly, the pair retraced precisely to the 78.6% fib zone, with bearish divergence forming between recent highs. This resistance zone is reinforced by a long-term rising trendline.

On the weekly, divergence is confirmed, and although structure remains intact, a break is brewing. Nikkhil marks the first bearish extension on the daily, with targets between 1.3759 and 1.3750.

This level could act as a springboard for a short-term bullish correction, possibly retracing to 1.3820 or higher, before the downtrend resumes.

Watch for price to reach 1.3750, this is where structure, divergence, and momentum all converge.

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Click here to find out why 1.3750 is the most important level in USDCAD this week (and how Nikkhil plans to trade the bounce and breakdown.)

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XAUUSD (GOLD)

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Finally, Gold’s monthly chart remains extremely bullish, with MACD lines and histogram in full momentum. Nikkhil’s long-term Fib extension from the 2015 low points directly to 3481, with 3126 and 3349 already cleared.

On the weekly, multiple fib overlaps now place 3480–3500 as the next major magnet, and potential next all-time high.

The daily shows no signs of divergence. Momentum remains intact, with the current resistance at 3349 being just a pause.

The 4H reveals minor bearish divergence, but unless 3203 is broken, sellers don’t have full control. On the 1H, divergence on MACD lines is noted, but price remains resilient.

Pullbacks to 3230–3220 would be ideal buy zones, with the trend still targeting the 3480–3500 range.

Click here to see how Nikkhil’s charting the next all-time high in Gold (and where he plans to reload if price pulls back.)

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So, which trade holds the edge this week?

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This week’s top setups include: