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Welcome to your weekly market forecast for the trading week beginning on 13th January 2025! As we step into a new week, Nikkhil anticipates that market volume will gradually pick up, bringing the right kind of volatility and liquidity for trading. With last week’s strong U.S. NFP numbers, the dollar is expected to maintain its strength. Let’s dive into the charts and explore the key trading opportunities for the week ahead.
Dollar Index (DXY)
The U.S. Dollar remains exceptionally strong, and the charts confirm that the bullish trend is likely to continue. From a technical standpoint, the dollar index is showing rising momentum across multiple timeframes. On the monthly and weekly charts, the dollar is in a clear uptrend, with strong support at lower levels and the potential for further moves towards 110 and even 114.3. On the daily chart, the Fibonacci extension confirms that the next resistance lies near the 110.13 level, where price might face some short-term challenges. With the fundamental strength of the dollar combined with this technical setup, Nikkhil sees bullish opportunities ahead. However, a retracement toward 108.62 could offer a nice entry point for long positions.
AUDCHF
The Aussie-Franc pair is currently facing bearish pressure. Starting from the monthly time frame, Nikkhil sees a clear downtrend, with multiple Fibonacci extensions confirming a continuation of the bearish move. The price has already broken key support levels, and with the MACD histogram pointing downward, further declines are expected. The next target for this pair appears to be 0.55, and if it breaks through, 0.53 could be in sight. From a technical perspective, the AUDCHF is showing a high probability of continued downside, making it a prime candidate for short positions in the coming week.
Crude Oil (CL1!)
Crude oil has bounced strongly off the 66.5 support level, and the bullish momentum is still intact. The price action shows a steady rise, with key resistance around 78.5. As the dollar continues to strengthen, crude oil could face some headwinds, but the demand outlook remains solid. Technically, on the daily and 4-hour charts, the price is in an uptrend, and any retracements back to the 74.0-74.4 support zone could present buying opportunities. The bullish trend remains intact unless we see a major reversal at these resistance levels. I expect the price to continue towards the 78.5 target, but short-term pullbacks should be closely watched.
EURUSD
The Euro is struggling against the strength of the dollar. The EUR/USD pair has been forming lower highs on the weekly and daily charts, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. The price has already broken below key levels, and the next major support is at 1.0 (parity). Given the current market dynamics, it seems likely that the pair will continue its downward movement, targeting 1.0 in the short term. The technical indicators align with the bearish bias, and any pullback to 1.03-1.04 could present a solid opportunity for short positions.
S&P 500 (US500)
The S&P 500 is showing signs of bearish pressure after reaching a key resistance level. The weekly chart indicates a potential weakness in the bullish momentum, and the price is starting to print lower highs, confirming that the sellers are in control. Although the long-term bullish outlook remains, there are short-term bearish opportunities on the horizon. On the 4-hour chart, key resistance levels around 5580 are in play, and a further pullback could target 5127 as the next significant support. The current setup offers short-term trades with a clear risk-to-reward ratio, but you should be cautious about long-term positions.
Final Thoughts for the Week Ahead
The dollar remains the strongest player in the market, with bullish trends across major pairs like the EUR/USD and USD/CHF. Crude oil is also in a bullish phase, and the S&P 500, despite showing signs of bearish pressure, could offer short-term opportunities. The upcoming week is shaping up to be an exciting one with plenty of trading opportunities across multiple instruments.
Wishing you a profitable week ahead!
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