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Welcome to this week's market forecast for the trading week starting 3rd March. With a new month comes major market-moving events, and this week is packed with critical catalysts, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Announcement. These events will set the tone for volatility across the markets, so let’s break down the most important trade setups.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The US Dollar Index continues to show strong bullish momentum, with a major resistance zone at 108.56 based on Fibonacci extensions. On higher timeframes, the trend remains intact, as both the monthly and daily timeframes confirm a bullish structure. However, the weekly chart suggests a short-term pullback, indicating that we might see a slight retracement before a push higher. On the daily and 4-hour charts, a fresh bullish crossover has formed, suggesting that buyers are stepping in. The most likely scenario is a short-term dip before a strong continuation towards new highs above 108.56. Keep an eye on the falling trendline on the 4-hour timeframe, as a break of this structure could trigger further acceleration to the upside.
CADJPY
The Canadian dollar continues to weaken against the Japanese yen, as CADJPY has now broken below key structural support. The monthly and weekly timeframes confirm a strong downtrend, with price action rejecting a key magnet resistance zone. The latest bearish move suggests that sellers are in full control, and a further decline towards 101.50 - 101.60 is highly probable. However, the market may attempt a temporary rally towards 104 - 105, creating a prime selling opportunity before the next major drop unfolds. Expect a pullback into this area before renewed downside momentum kicks in. Traders should watch for confirmation signals, such as bearish divergence or rejection wicks, before executing short positions.
Crude Oil
Crude oil is under pressure, showing signs of continued weakness as the market struggles to regain bullish momentum. The recent pullback failed to establish new highs, and sellers have stepped in aggressively. Price action has now corrected towards the $67 support level, a critical zone that may provide a temporary bounce. However, with the current bearish structure intact, any rise towards $74 - $78 should be treated as a sell-on-rally opportunity. If sellers maintain control, the next leg down could drive crude oil prices towards $55 - $57.50, aligning with key Fibonacci extension levels. Traders should remain cautious of potential false breakouts and focus on shorting strength rather than chasing the move lower.
GBPAUD
GBP remains one of the strongest currencies against AUD, driven by risk-off sentiment and capital flowing into safer assets. The monthly and weekly timeframes confirm a strong uptrend, with price targeting the next key resistance zone at 2.05 - 2.07. Fibonacci projections suggest an even larger move towards 2.11 - 2.44, making this a prime candidate for buy-on-dip opportunities. Current price action shows that buyers are still in control, with no signs of trend exhaustion yet. However, a short-term pullback towards 1.99 - 2.00 could present a valuable buying opportunity for traders looking to catch the next major move higher.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq is showing clear signs of exhaustion after a prolonged rally. Bearish divergence has formed, and price action has now tested a key rising trendline support. The break of this level will be a crucial confirmation for further downside. As things stand, a corrective bounce is likely, with the market potentially rallying back towards 21,200 - 21,600 before resuming its bearish trend. If this resistance holds, the next major target will be 19,900 - 20,000, which aligns with multiple technical confluences. Any failed attempt to break higher should be seen as a selling opportunity, particularly for traders looking to capitalise on momentum shifts.
NZDUSD
NZDUSD remains firmly bearish, as recent attempts at recovery have been short-lived. The weekly timeframe confirms strong selling pressure, with key resistance at 0.5766 acting as a ceiling. A short-term bounce is expected, with price likely to retest the 0.5700 - 0.5766 zone before resuming its downward trend. The next major target for this pair sits at 0.5450 - 0.5500, offering traders a clear risk-to-reward opportunity. The short-term retracement should provide an ideal entry for those looking to short this pair before the next wave of selling accelerates.
Gold (XAUUSD)
Gold has recently faced pressure, retracing from its near $3,000 highs and finding temporary support in the $2,831 - $2,839 zone. The monthly timeframe remains strongly bullish, but signs of a deeper correction are emerging. The key level to watch is $2,812, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. If this level holds, we could see a bounce towards $2,900 - $2,950 before further downside. However, if gold breaks below $2,812, the next major support lies at $2,767. On lower timeframes, a falling trendline is in play, and a confirmed breakout above this structure could trigger a bullish reversal. Traders should look for confirmation before committing to either direction.
Wishing you a profitable week ahead,
We’ll talk soon!
Team Moneytize
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